Welcome to the New York Jets 2011 Prediction post.
If you missed my Notre Dame Football 2011 post, it is here.
Disclaimer: I’m a New York Jets season ticket holder and lifelong fan.
Today, I’m taking my second straight detour from regular business topics to preview the upcoming season for the New York Jets. We will return to regularly-scheduled programming later in the week.
The last two seasons have been good ones for the Jets and Jets fans. In fact, one could argue they were the best back-to-back seasons in club history. I think the reasons are plentiful in terms of explaining why the Jets have seen so much success lately. It starts at the top, in the front office. From Mr. Johnson (owner), to the GM, to the Coach, and everyone in between, there is a winning mentality that the team hasn’t had in a very long time, likely since the late 1990′s in the Parcells era. There is something about a winning mentality that becomes contagious year after year.
What else has been responsible for the team’s success? Head coach Rex Ryan. The defense was ranked #1 in 2009 and #3 in 2010. QB Mark Sanchez progressing from wet-behind-the-ears rookie to year three veteran. Special teams behind Mike Westhoff has played a role, too, as the Jets kick and punt return teams have excelled.
So, the team is in year three of the Rex Ryan era and expectations are sky-high. The coach wouldn’t have it any other way. Looking into a crystal ball, what do I see for the 2011-2012 season?
Review of the 2010-2011 season as it relates to the 2011-2012 season:
Let’s start with the good: a second-straight AFC Championship berth; a second-straight year with two road playoff wins against elite competition; another year of terrific defense; Mark Sanchez controlling the ball better (more TD’s than INT’s); and a strong second-place finish in the AFC East with an 11-5 regular season record. It is also notable that the Jets did not lose a game to a team who missed the playoffs except for the Miami Dolphins.
The not-so-good? The Jets once again could not get over the hump in terms of winning the division and getting a home playoff game(s). The red-zone offense struggled mightily, finishing 30th out of 32 teams. The team also struggled in many of its victories. One could argue that the four games against Denver, Detroit, Cleveland and Houston – games the team won – were very losable and the Jets caught a few breaks. You could make the point that it was good the team took advantage of opportunities late in games, but you could also say they shouldn’t have been in those situations to begin with.
All in all, I believe the Jets were very disappointed at falling short of their stated goal of winning a Super Bowl. But the Jets fan base took a lot of good from the 2010-2011 season and are confident heading into this year’s campaign.
Offense:
There is certainly no QB battle, as Mark Sanchez has steadily progressed from his rookie season to now his third season. He shows great leadership and also has total control of the offense at this point. The knock on young Mark is that his completion percentage is still in the 50% range, far too low for the type of controlled attack the offense runs. Still, a positive TD to INT ratio showed great progress and he has figured out how to use the weapons around him.
Speaking of weapons, the conversation starts and ends with Santonio Holmes. Holmes will provide the spark and big-play ability for a second straight year, this time a full year (remember: he missed the first four games of the 2010 season).
Prediction #1: Santonio Holmes will be elected to the Pro Bowl this season.
There was concern about the rest of the WR core after the departure of Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery; but the Jets signed Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason and hopes are high for those guys especially to contribute in the red zone where the Jets struggled last year.
The offensive line has been a strong suit for the team in the last two years, and I expect that to continue despite a few younger players in the mix. When you have a line anchored around C Nick Mangold, the odds are good that the entire line will be good. I would like to see Shonn Greene have a break0ut year, though, which hasn’t happened yet, and the line will go a long way to that end.
Overall, I believe the offense will be more productive in year three under Rex Ryan. I also believe the signing of Plaxico Burress will go down as the best free agency move of the year by any team.
Defense:
The biggest fault you can put on the Jets defense is perhaps the player they didn’t get. The winner of the Asomugha sweepstakes was the Philadelphia Eagles, despite the Jets trying to get Nnamdi to anchor the other corner opposite Revis Island. They were successful in bringing back Antonio Cromartie for another year, and he’s nothing to scoff at. In fact, I think he will have a little chip on his shoulder and will lead the team in INT’s this year.
The linebacking corps has likewise been a strong suit for the team, and this will also continue. David Harris is a franchise LB, and if the Jets get productivity out of the rest of the LB’s, they will be the unit to make plays in their defensive scheme. The Jets have been a tough team to run on, mostly due to the linebackers rather than the defensive line.
Speaking of the line, the pass rush has been a major concern for the Jets. The team’s sack totals have been sub-par, and you hear a lot of chatter from coaches and fans about that. Expect the sacks to come this year more than last year. I still believe the team will not be among the elite in sack numbers, but that is probably okay given their scheme. The defense led the entire league in opposing offense “3 and out’s”, and I think they’ll take that stat over leading the league in sack totals.
The defense will be in the top 5 in the league once again, which means that practically any game they play is winnable and some games could come down to special teams.
Special Teams:
Speaking of special teams, this is an area I have the most concern about this season. Nick Folk was…solid last year. There were some nervous times with him, but most of the time he produced when called upon making several game-winning kicks, most notably in the playoffs at Indianapolis. I enter the year not completely confident in him, and I believe there could be a chance that he’s replaced by Novak mid-year if he doesn’t get off to a good start. The kicking game will be far too important for Westhoff and Ryan to mess around with a kicker who is struggling. So he better be solid again.
Prediction #2: The Jets will badly miss Brad Smith.
I believe the return game will be serviceable, but it won’t excel like it has in years past. I think they’ll run one or maybe two kicks or punts back for a TD, but that is a far different feeling than the 2010 season when it felt like Smith could take one to the house at any time even while not wearing shoes.
I’m also nervous about the punting game. For the Jets, winning the field position battle is key because of their defense. Pinning teams back inside their own 20, or even 10, results in points by the defense because of how much pressure they inflict on opposing QB’s. I would like to see the punting game become a strength, but I don’t see that happening in the 2011 season. Again, I hope the punting is “solid.”
There will be around 5 games that will come down to special teams. If the Jets can execute at crunch time in the kicking game, they will win those games. If they don’t, Jets fans will not have any nails left at the end of the year.
Schedule:
September 11: Dallas (H)
September 18: Jacksonville (H)
September 25: Oakland (A)
October 2: Baltimore (A)
October 9: New England (A)
October 17: Miami (H)
October 23: San Diego (H)
November 6: Buffalo (A)
November 13: New England (H)
November 17: Denver (A)
November 27: Buffalo (H)
December 4: Washington (A)
December 11: Kansas City (H)
December 18: Philadelphia (A)
December 24: New York Giants (H)
January 1: Miami (A)
Regular Season Outlook:
Once again, the divisional matchups will challenge the Jets. Anytime you have New England in your division, it is a tough go of things. I also believe Buffalo will be improved and quite frankly it doesn’t matter how the Dolphins are playing, they always give the Jets everything they can handle. A 5-1 divisional record would be terrific. 4-2 is likely. I think the team will split with New England and Buffalo, and will take both games against Miami.
The rest of the schedule stacks up in a very difficult fashion. Away games at Philadelphia and Baltimore stand out, but the Jets also have to deal with Kansas City and San Diego at home, and make the long trip to Oakland.
The sneakiest game on the schedule is the Thursday night game at Denver. It comes just a few short days after what will likely be an emotional game against the Patriots. While the Broncos were miserable last year, that will be a tough game and will test the mental composure of the Jets. Can the Jets avoid a letdown? Can they prove they can beat the Patriots in stride?
I love the “Bye” week happening in the middle of the season.
Here is how I see it playing out: I think the Jets will start 4-0, before losing to New England. They win 2 games at home, and then lose to Buffalo, bringing their record to 7-2. They beat New England, Denver and Buffalo to go 10-2. I think they will struggle at Washington and will drop one to the Redskins, and I think they will have a tough time with the Eagles a few games later. I think they will end the season in style by beating the Giants and the Dolphins on New Year’s Day.
Prediction #3: 12-4 is the call. The win against the Dolphins will have major playoff and seeding implications.
Postseason Outlook:
The Jets will finish with an identical record as the Patriots, at 12-4, but will win the division by virtue of a tiebreaker. They will be the #3 seed in the AFC and will finally host a playoff game. They will exact some revenge on the #6 seed, the Steelers, in the first round. They will beat the #2 Ravens in Baltimore, and then will return home to play the #5 seed Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
The Jets will defeat the Patriots and advance to the Super Bowl.
They will then win the Super Bowl, beating the Philadelphia Eagles and reversing the regular season defeat.
That’s right, fans. I’m predicting the Jets will finally get their Super Bowl in the 2011-2012 season. At least I’m not the only one. Rex Ryan predicted it too. 
